The Iran war has shut the world's most critical oil corridor, sent jet fuel prices to historic highs, and knocked out the Gulf's aviation hubs. The case for cheaper flights this summer is thin.
On February 28, 2026, U.S. and Israeli forces struck Iran. Within hours, Tehran announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz — a 34-kilometer-wide chokepoint through which roughly 20 million barrels of oil pass every day, accounting for about 20 percent of global seaborne oil trade. The International Energy Agency called it the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market. For the aviation industry, the timing could not have been worse: Europe’s summer travel season was weeks away, and its jet fuel stockpiles were already running low.
The numbers tell the rest of the story quickly. According to Kayak’s weekly pricing data, the average international round-trip fare stood at $1,097 on April 20 — a 42 percent jump from $774 on February 23, before the war, and 14 percent above the same period a year earlier. On the fuel side, Argus Media’s U.S. jet fuel index shows prices climbing from $2.50 per gallon before the war to $4.56 by late April — an 82 percent increase in under two months.
Airlines are now caught between two bad options: absorb costs that have effectively doubled, or pass them on to travelers. Most are doing both — raising base fares, reintroducing fuel surcharges, and cutting lower-margin routes. SAS, which entered the crisis with no fuel hedging in place, moved almost immediately to implement what it called a “temporary price adjustment.” Lufthansa, better protected with 80 percent of its 2026 fuel consumption hedged, nonetheless warned investors the price spike would still add roughly 1.7 billion euros ($2 billion) to its cost base this year. Air New Zealand raised long-haul economy fares by around $53 per one-way ticket. Qantas increased its longest international routes by approximately 5 percent.
Why Europe Is Especially Exposed
The argument that European airfares specifically face upward pressure rests on a structural vulnerability that predates this conflict. Over the past two decades, dozens of European refineries have permanently closed or been converted to biofuel production, steadily eroding the continent’s domestic jet fuel output. Europe has compensated by importing — including significant volumes that flow through the Strait of Hormuz. When that corridor closed, Europe’s supply position deteriorated faster than most other regions.
S&P Global’s head of fuels and refining for the Americas and Europe, Debnil Chowdhury, noted that Europe’s dependence on Hormuz-routed jet fuel was significant, and that its pre-war inventories left it with little buffer. The IEA confirmed this, with its director warning publicly that Europe had only around six weeks of jet fuel supply on hand as the summer season approached.
The Gulf aviation hubs compound the problem. Emirates, Qatar Airways, and Etihad collectively handle around one-third of all passenger traffic between Europe and Asia, and more than half of travelers flying from Europe to Australia and the broader Pacific. Their near-suspension of operations removed a vast swathe of capacity from the global network, forcing remaining carriers to consolidate schedules and tighten seat supply. On certain Europe-Asia corridors, fares spiked sharply as passengers scrambled for alternatives.
Where the Argument Holds — and Where It Needs Qualification
The claim that higher European fares are inevitable is well-supported at the structural level. But “inevitable” is doing some work that deserves scrutiny.
Destination matters. Analysis from Euronews found that fare increases to short-haul European leisure destinations — Spain, Portugal, Italy, Greece — have so far been moderate compared to long-haul and Asia-Europe routes. Spanish beach packages have not been priced out of reach; trans-Pacific connections routed through Dubai have.
Hedging creates a meaningful lag. British Airways owner IAG stated in March that it was well-hedged for the immediate future and had no plans to change prices. Ryanair’s position provides a similar buffer. The airlines pushing fares up hardest right now are those that entered the crisis exposed.
A diplomatic resolution changes everything — eventually. If the Strait reopens and Gulf carriers return to full operations, fares could fall significantly from current highs on affected routes. But even then, the Washington Post’s reporting makes clear that supply chain normalization takes months: “The world of February 27th is not a place we can go back to.”
Assessment
The argument that higher European airfares are inevitable is, on the evidence, substantially correct — but it applies most precisely to long-haul and Gulf-routed intercontinental flights, not to all European aviation uniformly. The structural drivers are genuine: jet fuel up 82 percent, Europe’s specific vulnerability to Hormuz supply disruption, Gulf hub capacity effectively removed from the global network, and a supply chain that experts say will take months to normalize even after a political settlement. Lufthansa’s $2 billion cost warning and the IEA’s six-week supply alert are not speculation — they are disclosed figures from institutions with direct visibility into the numbers.
What the argument should not be taken to mean is that every European flight will rise uniformly and indefinitely. Short-haul intra-European fares — especially to leisure destinations served by well-hedged carriers — have shown more resilience. The honest answer is that the burden of proof currently sits firmly with anyone arguing fares will stay low, not with those warning they will not.
Sources: Kayak weekly fare data (April 20, 2026); Argus Media U.S. Jet Fuel Price Index; CNBC (May 2, 2026); Al Jazeera (March 10, 2026); Euronews (March 9, 2026); OilPrice.com; Washington Post (May 8, 2026); IEA; Wikipedia, “2026 Iran war fuel crisis.”
Subscribe to EuroLuminant for independent European journalism.
