New polling shows a growing share of Europeans now view the United States as a potential threat, while attitudes toward China are becoming more nuanced. Beneath the headlines lies a deeper shift: Europe is reassessing its place in a world no longer defined by automatic transatlantic alignment.
A Quiet but Significant Shift in European Opinion
Recent polling across major EU countries shows that one in five Europeans now sees the United States as a “threat”, a figure that would have been unthinkable a decade ago.
This is not simply a reaction to a particular administration or foreign‑policy decision. It reflects a broader unease about Europe’s dependence on external powers — and a growing desire for strategic autonomy.
Transatlantic Trust Is No Longer Assumed
For most of the post‑war era, Europe’s worldview rested on a stable assumption: the United States was both a security guarantor and a values‑based partner. But recent Eurobarometer data shows a more divided picture, with positive and negative views of the US now almost evenly split.
Economic frictions, shifting security priorities and a widening expectations gap have eroded the sense of automatic alignment. Europeans increasingly see Washington as unpredictable — a partner, yes, but no longer an unquestioned anchor.
Europe’s Strategic Self‑Reflection Deepens
This shift is not only about the US. It is also about Europe’s evolving self‑image.
Analyses from the European Council on Foreign Relations describe a continent moving toward a “post‑Western” mindset, where Europeans see themselves as neither junior partners to the US nor passive observers of US‑China rivalry.
The French foreign minister recently described Europe as an “unknown variable” in the US‑China competition — a telling phrase that captures both Europe’s uncertainty and its potential agency.
Europeans are beginning to ask a question that would have sounded radical a decade ago: What does Europe want for itself?
China: Still a Rival, But No Longer a Monolith
European views on China remain cautious, but they are also becoming more differentiated. Surveys show that while China is widely seen as a competitor, Europeans are increasingly separating economic rivalry, political values, and strategic risk — rather than treating China as a single, uniform threat.
This does not mean Europe is warming to Beijing. Rather, it suggests a more pragmatic, less ideologically rigid approach — one shaped by economic interdependence and geopolitical realism.
What This Means for Europe’s Future
Europe’s shifting public opinion will shape policy in three important ways:
- Strategic autonomy will gain political momentum, not as an anti‑US project but as a response to global uncertainty.
- Economic policy will become more geopolitical, especially in technology, energy and industrial strategy.
- Transatlantic relations will become more transactional, driven by interests rather than identity.
Europe is not turning away from the West. It is turning toward itself — reassessing its role, its alliances and its long‑term interests in a world where old assumptions no longer hold.
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