The Round of 32 delivers a week of chaos, penalties, and the most improbable comeback of the tournament so far
Nobody seriously expected Germany and the Netherlands to both be out of the World Cup before the Round of 32 was even complete. And yet here we are. A tournament that had, through its expanded group stage, managed to sustain something approaching order — the big teams winning, the upsets concentrated among the lower seeds — has entered the knockout phase with the velocity of a structural collapse. Four European nations were still in the competition heading into the first week of knockouts. France glided through with the minimum of effort. Norway edged past Ivory Coast. England survived, emphatically late and visibly shaken, against DR Congo. Belgium performed what their own manager could not plausibly have scripted in advance. Germany and the Netherlands, meanwhile, will be watching the quarter-finals from home. It is the most significant European attrition in a single World Cup round since at least 2002, and it has dramatically reshaped the bracket.
Monday, Boston: Germany’s Fourth Catastrophe
There is a word in German — Katastrophe — and it is being used widely in the country’s sports press this morning. Germany’s 1-1 draw with Paraguay at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough on Monday evening, resolved 4-3 to Paraguay in the subsequent penalty shootout, was not merely a defeat. It was a defeat that followed defeats at the 2018 group stage, at the 2022 Round of 16, and which now extends a run without a World Cup knockout win to twelve years. The four-time champions have not won a knockout game in this tournament since beating Argentina in the 2014 final.
The match itself was a study in German inadequacy and Paraguayan organisation. Julian Nagelsmann’s side had 78 per cent possession in the first half, failed to register a single shot on target, and went into the break trailing to Julio Enciso’s header — a goal that came from a short corner Waldemar Anton should never have allowed to develop. Kai Havertz’s equaliser seven minutes into the second half arrived with the sense that normal service was about to resume. It did not.
The controversy arrived in extra time, when Jonathan Tah’s header from a corner was ruled out by VAR — the technology adjudging a soft foul by Anton on goalkeeper Orlando Gill, a decision that was widely questioned in real time and has been comprehensively dismissed in retrospect by every tactical analyst who has reviewed it. Tah himself was then one of three Germans to miss in the shootout — Havertz saved by Gill, Nick Woltemade saved by Gill, Tah blazing over. José Canale converted Paraguay’s winning kick. The television cameras cut to Manuel Neuer, who sat with his head in his gloves for a long time before announcing, in a brief interview afterwards, that he was retiring from international football.
Nagelsmann’s post-match statement was controlled and sad: “It’s a joke that our goal was disallowed, but at the end of the day you have to say that it simply wasn’t enough.” The Sky Germany correspondent Florian Plettenberg was less measured: “I have to admit I’m completely shocked. It’s a complete disaster again. After the World Cup in Russia, after the World Cup in Qatar, now the next embarrassment. It’s a shame what we play, how we play, how we get in touch with these tournaments.” Havertz, who missed the first penalty, said only: “I don’t have much to say. I’m lost for words. My second World Cup, and we’ve blown it twice.” The question of whether Nagelsmann survives as manager is now the dominant issue in German football.
Monday, Monterrey: Gakpo’s Grief and Dutch Elimination
If Germany’s exit was operatic, the Netherlands’ was something closer to tragic. Cody Gakpo scored the goal that appeared to be sending the Dutch to the Round of 16 — a precise left-footed finish in the 72nd minute after a sharp counter that began with Wout Weghorst winning an aerial challenge and Crysencio Summerville threading a pass into the Liverpool forward’s path. Gakpo wiped tears from his face as his teammates surrounded him. Two days earlier, Gakpo and his partner Noa van der Bij had announced publicly that they had lost their unborn son. His teammates had been supporting him through it all week. The goal felt, in the moment, like football offering something back.
Then Morocco refused to accept the loss. In the first minute of stoppage time, substitute Chemseddine Talbi’s cross from the left was met by a charging Issa Diop — rising above Virgil van Dijk, no less — who headed emphatically into the corner. The stadium exhaled. Extra time produced Bart Verbruggen’s finest moment of the tournament: a point-blank save from Soufiane Rahimi in the 97th minute that, had it gone in, would have ended the match then and there.
The shootout was Miss Marple in penalties form: barely anyone could score, and several tried. Neil El Aynaoui hit the bar for Morocco. Justin Kluivert hit the post for the Netherlands. Quinten Timber missed. Achraf Hakimi hit the post. Verbruggen saved from Summerville. Ismael Saibari stepped up and drove low to Verbruggen’s right. Morocco through, 3-2 on penalties. Ronald Koeman, whose tactical switch to a back five in the second half had surrendered possession and initiative to Morocco at precisely the wrong moment, declined to explain his reasoning at length in the post-match press conference. The Dutch FA will be asking those questions in private over the coming days. For Morocco, the win confirms a pattern: they have now eliminated a European side in the knockout rounds of the last two World Cups, and they face Canada in the Round of 16 on July 4 in Houston.
Tuesday: Mbappé Masterclass, Norway Endure
France’s Round of 32 fixture against Sweden in East Rutherford on Tuesday evening was less a match than a short, polite lesson in the difference between the tournament’s best team and the rest of the field. Mbappé’s double in the first half — a near-post finish in the 22nd minute and a precise far-corner drive in the 37th — were both created through his own movement rather than by any structural play from the team around him. Bradley Barcola added a third late on after Sweden had exhausted themselves trying to disrupt a French press that did not particularly press. France advance to the Round of 16 to face the winner of France or Paraguay — which, after Monday’s shock, will be Paraguay — and the prospect of Les Bleus against a Paraguayan side that eliminated Germany on penalties is, on paper, about as comfortable a draw as Didier Deschamps could have hoped to return from Paris for.
Norway, earlier in the day in Dallas, endured something rather different. Ivory Coast were not the organised defensive unit Germany had met in Foxborough — they pressed high, played through the lines, and gave Haaland and Ødegaard the same problems they had caused in the group stage. Haaland was largely anonymous in the first half, with Ivory Coast’s Jean-Philippe Gbamin doing something that very few players in this tournament have managed: limiting the Manchester City forward to movement without purpose, cutting off his supply before it arrived.
Norway were trailing 1-0 to a 38th-minute Sébastien Haller header when Martin Ødegaard’s free-kick deflected off the Ivory Coast wall and fell to Haaland at the back post in the 67th minute. He did not need a second touch. The equaliser unlocked something in the Norwegian shape: Ødegaard began to find space he had not found earlier, Marcus Holmgren Pedersen overlapped with increasing confidence on the right, and when Haaland scored his second of the match in the 79th minute — a header from a Pedersen cross — the Tartan Army, still in the stadium from their trip south after Scotland’s elimination, sent up a noise that confused the Ivory Coast players. Norway face Brazil on July 5 in East Rutherford in what is, straightforwardly, the Round of 16’s most compelling fixture.
Wednesday, Atlanta: England’s Recurring Near-Death
England have a tradition in this tournament of making things maximally difficult for themselves, and the Round of 32 in Atlanta was no exception to it. DR Congo — whose own group stage journey had included a historic 1-1 draw with Portugal and a 3-1 win over Uzbekistan that sent them to the knockout rounds — were not a team England could reasonably have expected to be losing to in the seventh minute. And yet, Brian Cipenga’s finish in the opening exchanges — a calm side-footed shot at the near post after Djed Spence was beaten on the overlap — gave the Leopards a lead they barely appeared to believe they had.
What followed was 68 minutes of increasingly frantic England possession against a DR Congo defence organised by a goalkeeper, Lionel Mpasi-Nzau, who produced one of the outstanding individual performances of the tournament’s knockout rounds. Mpasi saved from Bellingham twice in the first half. He saved from Kane from close range at the back post after a Rice corner. He denied Bellingham again in the second half with a reflex stop that ESPN described as the save of the tournament. Yoane Wissa struck the post for Congo with the score at 0-1, a moment that would have changed the afternoon irreversibly. The post gave it back.
Kane’s equaliser came in the 75th minute — a header from inside the box after Bellingham’s shot was saved and the ball fell kindly. His winner, eleven minutes later, was something better: Bellingham’s run forced the save, Anthony Gordon collected the rebound and played a precise pass across the face of the area, and Kane struck it first time into the far corner. The stadium — crammed with England shirts — produced a sound that could be heard in the concourse outside. Kane now has 13 World Cup goals across three tournaments and stands second in England’s all-time international scoring list behind only Wayne Rooney.
Kane himself, speaking to BBC Sport, was understated in victory: “We spoke all week about just being ourselves. There are still things to work on for sure and these rounds are just about getting through. We are in the part of the tournament when you have to grind wins out, and that’s what we have done today.” Tuchel did not attempt to disguise the anxiety: England face Mexico in the Round of 16 in Mexico City on July 5, playing inside the Azteca, in front of 87,000 people who will emphatically not be willing England on. The defensive fragility exposed against Congo will need to be resolved before that.
Wednesday, Seattle: Belgium’s Three-Minute Resurrection
The most improbable result of the Round of 32, and arguably of the tournament so far, was produced in Seattle’s Lumen Field on Wednesday afternoon, where Belgium came back from 2-0 down with five minutes remaining to beat Senegal 3-2 after extra time. The bare facts do not begin to capture what happened.
Senegal had been the better side from the opening whistle — organised in possession, dangerous in the press, direct with their runners — and by the 51st minute were two goals ahead: Habib Diarra’s 25th-minute finish from close range and Ismaïla Sarr’s second-half goal after a sweeping move. With twenty minutes remaining, Rudi Garcia then made the decision that seemed to confirm defeat: Kevin De Bruyne and Jeremy Doku were substituted off. The Belgian press responded with genuine fury. With two of the team’s most creative players removed and the score at 0-2, the logic of the change was not immediately apparent.
What happened next made Garcia simultaneously look braver than he was and luckier than he deserved. Romelu Lukaku, who had barely touched the ball all afternoon, forced his way onto a low cross in the 86th minute and finished at the near post — 1-2. Youri Tielemans, whose tournament had been quietly effective without producing the decisive moments his quality demands, struck two minutes later from outside the area, low to the goalkeeper’s left — 2-2. The stadium, expecting a Senegalese celebration, fell into a strange silence. Deep in extra time, with the match heading for penalties, a VAR review identified a foul by Lamine Camara on Tielemans as a Belgian cross came in. The penalty was controversial — Camara’s contact was marginal — but Tielemans stepped up and drove it to the goalkeeper’s right. Belgium through, 3-2 after extra time. Senegal, who had deserved to win for ninety-three of the match’s minutes, were eliminated.
Belgium face the United States in the Round of 16 on July 6 in Seattle — a rematch in the same stadium. The Americans beat Bosnia and Herzegovina 2-0 in Wednesday’s late match, Folarin Balogun scoring before half-time and Malik Tillman adding a free-kick late on with ten men after Balogun’s contentious red card in the 64th minute. Whether Belgium’s extra-time exertions affect their recovery before Monday remains to be seen. What is certain is that the way they played for the first eighty-six minutes of Wednesday’s match — disjointed, passive, unable to impose themselves — must change.
The Bracket After the Shock
The Round of 32 has now produced two of the tournament’s most significant European eliminations in a single round, with Germany and the Netherlands both out before the last sixteen. Four European sides advance: France, Norway, England, and Belgium. Spain, Portugal, Croatia, Switzerland, Austria, and Algeria have all played their Round of 32 fixtures today, Thursday 2 July, and the results will complete the shape of the bracket.
The structure that remains is revealing. France face Paraguay in Philadelphia on Saturday and are overwhelming favourites — Opta’s models give them a 91% chance of advancing. Norway face Brazil in East Rutherford on Sunday in the fixture that most neutrals will want to watch: Haaland against Vinícius Júnior, Ancelotti against Solbakken, the tournament’s most in-form striker against the five-time world champions’ most electric attacker. England face Mexico at the Azteca, which is an afternoon that requires no additional framing. Belgium face the United States, also on Monday.
The abiding impression from the first week of knockouts, for European observers, is that the expanded 48-team format has not protected the established powers from early exits — it has simply added an additional round in which they can be eliminated. Germany’s record since 2014 is now three consecutive tournament exits before the quarter-finals, an extraordinary sequence for a nation that expects, and has generally delivered, deep runs. The Netherlands, eliminated in a format that gave them three group games to prepare, failed to manage their lead and lost in the shootout. Both exits were avoidable. Neither was a freak. The tournament continues without them.
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