The month began with cautious U.S.–Iran indirect talks in Muscat. It ended with a U.S.–Israel operation that killed Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, triggering multi‑front retaliation, regional unrest and a rare UN rebuke. This is how the escalation unfolded — and why diplomacy never stood a chance.
Muscat’s Diplomatic Opening Was Too Narrow to Matter
In early February, Washington and Tehran resumed indirect talks in Muscat, mediated by Oman. As we reported at the time, the discussions were limited, fragile and overshadowed by deep mistrust (Read more in Euroluminant).
Several articles described the talks as “procedural” and “hesitant,” with Iran insisting on a nuclear‑only agenda and the U.S. pushing for broader issues. No confidence‑building measures emerged.
The Muscat channel existed on paper — but military planning was already advancing on all sides.
How the Crisis Escalated: The U.S.–Israel Operation and Its Fallout
A Joint Strike Campaign Begins Across Iran
According to The Guardian, the U.S. and Israel launched a coordinated, large‑scale strike campaign across Iran on February 28, targeting military infrastructure and leadership sites.
President Trump said “major combat operations” were underway, confirming that the strikes aimed to degrade Iran’s nuclear and military capabilities. A widely shared summary of his remarks also circulated on Reddit.
Iran Confirms Khamenei Has Been Killed
Iranian state media announced that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in the initial wave of U.S.–Israel strikes. Financial Times confirmed that Tehran declared 40 days of national mourning.
Al Jazeera also reported that Iranian state media confirmed his death following the attacks.
President Trump publicly acknowledged the killing, calling it “a necessary step.”
This marks the most consequential assassination in the Middle East in decades.
U.S. and Israel Continue Strikes as Iran Retaliates
CBS News reported that U.S. and Israeli forces launched another round of strikes after confirmation of Khamenei’s death, with the White House saying operations would continue “as required.”
Trump told U.S. media that Iran’s retaliation so far was “weaker than expected,” according to FNN Prime Online.
Iran responded with missile and drone attacks targeting:
- Israel
- U.S. bases in Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, Iraq and Jordan
- Israeli military sites in central Israel
KAB Online reported attacks near the U.S. Fifth Fleet in Bahrain.
The Times of Israel confirmed injuries in central Israel amid continued missile and drone attacks.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps claimed to have struck 27 U.S. military sites across the region.
Regional Unrest Spreads Beyond the Battlefield
The killing of Khamenei triggered widespread anti‑U.S. protests across the Middle East and South Asia.
WSLS reported that protesters stormed the U.S. consulate in Pakistan, resulting in multiple deaths.
Demonstrations erupted in Iraq, Lebanon, Bahrain and Afghanistan, with calls for broader retaliation.
The UN’s Unusually Direct Criticism of the U.S. and Israel
The escalation triggered an emergency UN Security Council meeting, where Secretary‑General António Guterres issued one of his strongest rebukes in years. According to UN News, he warned that the joint U.S.–Israeli strikes violated the UN Charter and risked pushing the region toward “a broader conflict with devastating consequences.”
He also condemned Iran’s retaliation for violating the sovereignty of multiple states.
The criticism was notable not only for its tone but for its timing: it underscored how far events had drifted from the diplomatic language used in Muscat. The UN’s intervention highlighted the widening gap between the diplomatic track and the military reality unfolding on the ground.
Why Everything Is Getting Worse at Once
Three dynamics converged:
- Iran is internally unstable, and states often escalate externally during leadership transitions.
- Israel sees a strategic opening and is acting before Iran’s succession stabilises.
- The U.S. is backing Israel militarily, not restraining it, removing the usual brake on escalation.
Muscat was never strong enough to counter these forces.
A Region Moving Toward Managed Escalation
The emerging pattern suggests neither side wants a full regional war, but all are willing to accept higher levels of risk. This is the most dangerous equilibrium: escalation is controlled only until it isn’t.
Oman may attempt to revive the Muscat channel, but expectations should remain low. The diplomatic window has narrowed, and the military track is now driving events.
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