Autonomous vehicles are no longer a distant promise. They are slipping quietly into Europe’s streets, first as tests, then as services, and eventually as infrastructure. London shows how this shift begins without most people noticing. Zagreb shows what happens when it becomes real. The question is no longer whether robotaxis arrive, but who controls the intelligence layer that will run Europe’s mobility systems.
London: A Quiet Change That Most People Haven’t Noticed Yet
You can walk through central London today and miss the fact that autonomous cars are already there. Waymo has begun testing a fleet of around 100 self‑driving Jaguar I‑Pace vehicles across a 100‑square‑mile area of the city, each still with a safety operator behind the wheel as the system learns London’s unpredictable streets.
The tests are not flashy. No big announcements on the street. Just cars that look ordinary, except they are mapping, observing and feeding data back into a system preparing for a commercial robotaxi launch in 2026.
This is the real shift: autonomous mobility enters cities not as a spectacle, but as invisible infrastructure.
Zagreb: Europe’s First Real Robotaxi Service
If London is the quiet beginning, Zagreb is the first visible break. According Reuters, Croatia approved Europe’s first commercial robotaxi service in partnership with Rimac Automobili. Bloomberg reports that the project is backed by EU funding and designed to operate without a driver.
It is a symbolic moment. Not because Zagreb is a tech capital, but because it shows where Europe’s regulatory and social acceptance thresholds are shifting. A mid‑sized city became the first to cross the line.
The lesson is simple: robotaxis scale where regulation moves faster than legacy expectations.
The Real Transformation: Cars Are Becoming Software With Wheels
For decades, Europe dominated the automotive industry through manufacturing strength. But autonomous mobility flips the hierarchy.
McKinsey notes that vehicles are becoming “software‑defined,” with intelligence, data and decision‑making shifting from hardware to algorithms. BCG argues that the competitive edge now lies in the operating system, not the chassis.
The question is no longer who builds the car. It is who owns the decision‑making layer that governs how it moves.
Robotaxis Are Not an Automotive Story — They Are a Tech Platform Battle
The global race makes this clear:
- United States: Waymo is expanding from Phoenix and San Francisco to London and Tokyo.
- China: Baidu and Pony.ai are scaling robotaxi fleets across major cities.
- Europe: Strong OEMs, but no dominant mobility OS.
The FT describes autonomous driving as a “global race” where platform control, not vehicle production, determines power. Reuters shows China accelerating deployments at city scale.
Europe risks becoming a supplier of hardware to systems it does not control.
Data: The Real Asset Is the Map of How a City Moves
Robotaxis generate something more valuable than rides: continuous, granular mobility data.
The World Economic Forum highlights how mobility data enables predictive modelling, urban planning and new commercial layers. Harvard Business Review notes that mobility datasets become the backbone of “city‑scale operating systems.”
Once robotaxis operate at scale, they become data‑collection infrastructure embedded in daily life.
And whoever owns that data owns the future of urban mobility.
What We Learn From Cities Already Running Robotaxis
Phoenix and San Francisco show what happens when robotaxis move from testing to daily use. Waymo operates fully driverless services there, navigating dense traffic and unpredictable behaviour. The New York Times reports ongoing debates about safety, regulation and public acceptance.
China’s deployments show another pattern: rapid scaling, tight integration with city authorities and aggressive cost competition.
These cities reveal the same thing: robotaxis reshape mobility economics long before they reshape streets.
Jobs: Not Disappearing, But Reorganising
The fear is that drivers vanish. The reality is more complicated.
OECD research suggests automation shifts labour rather than erasing it. McKinsey notes emerging roles in fleet supervision, remote operations and AI monitoring.
The workforce does not disappear. It reorganises around the machine.
Europe’s Dilemma: Strong Manufacturing, Weak Platforms
Europe excels at regulation and hardware. It struggles with AI, platforms and data sovereignty.
Bruegel warns that Europe risks losing control of digital infrastructure. ECFR highlights the widening gap between European industrial strength and its technological dependencies.
The risk is clear: Europe builds the cars, but someone else writes the operating system.
Cities, Not States, Will Decide the Next Phase
Zagreb’s early move shows that the competitive unit is shifting. Cities can approve, test and deploy faster than national governments. They can become laboratories for mobility innovation.
The UN and WEF both note that cities are becoming the primary arena for climate, transport and tech experimentation.
Robotaxis will not spread evenly across Europe. They will spread city by city, regulation by regulation.
Three Scenarios for Europe’s Robotaxi Future
1. Dependence
Europe supplies hardware while US and Chinese platforms run the intelligence layer.
2. Resistance
Europe attempts to build its own mobility OS — expensive, slow and politically fraught.
3. Hybrid (Most Likely)
External platforms operate under strict European regulatory frameworks, creating a mixed sovereignty model.
The IMF argues that Europe’s tech sovereignty will likely emerge through hybrid governance rather than pure independence.
The Real Question Is About Power, Not Transport
Autonomous taxis are not about convenience. They are about who controls the intelligence layer of mobility — the algorithms, the data, the operating systems.
And what is being deployed on Europe’s streets is not just a service. It is a new layer of power, arriving quietly, city by city, long before most people realise what has changed.
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